Turmoil In Egypt, is Jordan next?

Is Egypt about to erupt in a full-blown revolution that could lead to the fall of the Mubarak regime? Might Jordan's government be next?

One thing's for certain: no one predicted the demonstrations in Egypt would grow so big so fast. Momentum for the protests is growing. A Facebook page promoting the democracy protests grew from 20,000 members on Wednesday to 80,000 on Thursday. The government then reportedly shut down Facebook, and disrupted internet service in parts of the country. Twitter has been blocked. Police are beating protesters.

One key factor few are seeing at the moment: economics. Egyptians are suffering double-digit inflation and record food prices in recent years, and particularly in 2010. Most people are already dirt poor. Soaring food prices are causing them to fear they may not be able to feed their families. This is creating a "perfect storm" of anger against the Mubarak regime -- it's corrupt, authoritarian, anti-human rights, and resistant to all positive economic and political reform. It's been bad for the thirty years Mubarak has been in power. But with high inflation, especially for food, Egyptians are being pushed over the brink.

Calls for Mubarak to step down are growing. "Mohamed ElBaradei, the former head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog turned Egyptian reform campaigner, said he expected big demonstrations across Egypt on Friday, and that it was time for President Hosni Mubarak to go," reported Reuters. "ElBaradei, 68, left Vienna, where he lives, for Cairo on Thursday to join a growing wave of protests against Mubarak inspired by Tunisia's overthrow of their authoritarian president. He told Reuters he would not lead the street rallies, but that his role was 'to manage the change politically.'" On Friday, however, ElBaradei was placed under house arrest in Egypt.

Mubarak is decribed as a "classic Resister" -- he doesn't want real change of any kind. He just wants to retain power, keep things stable, keep wealth and power for himself, and pass the keys to the kingdom on to his son, Gamal. But such resistance to positive change is inflaming the "rank-and-file," every day Egyptians who feel increasingly desperate, and see others in the region (Tunisia, Iraq and the people of southern Sudan) as changing their governments and having more say in the affairs of state. They are yearning for something better, and now they've taken to the streets in hopes of getting it.

Meanwhile, protests have mounted in recent days in Jordan. Reports the AP: "The [Jordanian] economy saw a record deficit of $2 billion this year, inflation rising…to 6.1 percent just last month and rampant unemployment and poverty -- estimated at 12 and 25 percent respectively. 'The government buys cars and spends lavishly on its parties and travel, while many Jordanians are jobless or can barely put food on their tables to feed their hungry children,' said civil servant Mahmoud Thiabat, 31, a father of three who earns $395 a month."

In Egypt, I don't see the protests being driven primarily by the Muslim Brotherhood (which started in Egypt in the 1920s) or by radicals in general, though they're certainly trying to take advantage. This would be a nightmare scenario we need to pray never happens. We don't want this to be another Iranian Revolution where an Islamic Radical madman takes over. If Mubarak falls, we want to see a group of pro-democracy, pro-free market, serious reformers come to power. In Jordan, there is a very high risk that Islamic Radicals would take over the regime. It is precisely because the Jordanians have made such progress [with positive political and economic reforms in the past two decades] that I am worried by the Radicals' determination to launch a jihad there, seize the capital, and create a new anti-Israel, anti-Western base for Iran and al Qaeda. Therefore, I often hope for Jordan's peace, prosperity and continued progress. I hope for King Abdullah's health and safety, and the wisdom to know how best to move forward in such challenging times.