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Friday, October 24, 2008

Azerbaijan Feels Threatened...


The Perspective: We all remember when Russia attacked its small southern neighbor of Georgia right? It wasn't pretty, it was a complete embarrassment. Not just for Georgia but for its main supporter The United States.

For the first time in almost 20 years, we were hopeless and unhelpful in preventing 'The Bear' from attacking a nation. 'The Eagle' was beaten, and battered. And a little scared. So how does Azerbaijan work into all this? Pretty simple.

They feel that they are the next Georgia.

Ever since they got their independence from the Soviet Union when they collapsed they have done a balancing act between supporting the west and their northern neighbor, Russia. They took NATO support, but never have shown interest in joining. They allow U.S planes to land and refuel, but U.S. troops can't be stationed on their land.

The most important thing in all of this, is the pipeline they have that runs from the Caspian Sea up toward Russia and that breaks off and links to the one that goes through Georgia and supplies most of the oil to Europe.

In case you don't know, Russia attacked Georgia for two reasons. They didn't want Georgia in NATO, and two they wanted to control the oil that Georgia supplied to Europe. Remember Russia's oil company is nationalized. The government controls all oil, that Russia themselves produces.(Gazpcom in case your interested in the name) No private business.(Thank Putin for that....)

So if your Azerbaijan what do you do? Do you continue to try to play the balancing act between the west and the north or try something else? Something else is more likely. And its pretty simple.

The chess board has tipped. Its no longer possible to help both sides, its one side or the other. And boys and girls, it didn't tip in America's favor. Hell no, nowhere near it. 'The Bear' has a death grip upon its former Soviet States. Go ahead argue with me. You won't win. Find me one instance where they can't just squash any of their former Soviet States.

And lets not forget who borders Azerbaijan to the south...good ol' Iran. Looks like a bad place to be in my book.

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